Gold Under Permacrisis: Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Relationships (2019–2026)

Authors:

Pages: 35-45

Abstract:

The paper examines the dynamics of gold prices under conditions of prolonged economic instability, characterized by inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifts in monetary policy—from strongly expansionary measures to subsequent tightening. The relevance of the topic is determined by the increased volatility of financial markets after 2019 and the growing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset and a tool for portfolio diversification. The aim of the study is to analyze the relationship between gold returns and key macroeconomic and financial indicators, including U.S. inflation, real interest rates, the market uncertainty index (VIX), and the nominal broad U.S. dollar index. The empirical analysis is based on monthly data for the period 2019 – 2026 and includes descriptive, correlation, and regression analyses aimed at identifying the nature and strength of the relationships between the examined variables, as well as their behaviour across different sub-periods.

Keywords:

gold price dynamics; macroeconomic factors; inflation; U.S. dollar index (DXY); finan cial market volatility.

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