Икономическа интеграция в Съвета за сътрудничество в Залива: институционални амбиции и реални икономически резултати

Автори:
Страници: 183-198

Резюме:

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), established in 1981, has pursued an ambitious programme of economic integration formally mirroring the progressive typology provided by Bal assa (1961): a free trade area (1983), customs union (2003), common market (2008), and a projected monetary union by 2010. This paper examines the gap between the bloc’s declaratory institutional architecture and its measurable economic outcomes across four analytical dimensions: trade inte gration, factor market mobility, macroeconomic convergence, and regulatory harmonization. Applying established quantitative indices — the Trade Intensity Index, the Grubel-Lloyd Index, the Feldstein-Horioka criterion, and Optimum Currency Area convergence measures – to GCC data spanning 1983 to 2024, the paper finds that successive institutional upgrades have generated negli gible trade re-orientation, with intra-bloc merchandise trade stagnating at 8.4 per cent of total GCC trade in 2024, GLI values of 0.10–0.15 throughout the integration period, and GCC national labor mobility below 1% of the regional workforce. High business cycle synchronization (index revolving around 0.83) is shown to be an artefact of shared oil-price exposure rather than structural integra tion, with non-hydrocarbon GDP correlations collapsing to approximately 0.27. The paper argues that the ambition–achievement gap reflects a structural equilibrium determined by four mutually reinforcing factors: commodity export symmetry, rentier state political economy, intergovernmental institutional design, and competitive rather than complementary national diver sification strategies. The GCC case contributes three theoretical insights: it distinguishes exogenous shock symmetry from endogenous integration-induced convergence; reveals political will as the binding variable in Balassa’s stage model; and challenges the linear progression of regional integra tion theory.

Ключови думи:

Gulf Cooperation Council; economic integration; Balassa model; optimum currency area; trade intensity; rentier state; monetary union.

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